So, today will be just as warm, if not warmer, than yesterday. Might Hit 80 Today: No Records, But Continued Fire Danger Note that high temperatures in the Canadian Prairie Provinces were in the 70's with even some 80's directly east of the Canadian Rockies in Alberta (see 4 PM Wednesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).
That's because the air to our north and west has still been warmed by its trip down the Canadian Rockies and the sinking under the high pressure. The winds have shifted from southeast to the south of the front to northwest to its north, but overnight temperatures have remained in the 40's in much of the northern two-thirds of Minnesota with some 50's sprinkled in (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). This front has carried some middle clouds (see Shortwave Albedo loop from Colorado State satellite slider) and a handful of radar echoes in northern Minnesota (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but the dry air has allowed only a few drips to reach the ground (see lack of weather symbols on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Our air flow is still coming from the northwest, due to the western flank of the eastern Canada low and the eastern flank of the Rockies high (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), so a weak cold front has pushed into Minnesota overnight (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC US surface maps). So, the fire danger remained extreme in central Minnesota (see Minnesota Department of Natural Resources fire danger map, despite the light winds. That produced relative humidities of 30 to as low at 15 percent (set time to yesterday afternoon on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). The air remained extremely dry with dew points (green numbers) from the 20's to even the single digits in Iowa and Nebraska. Our weather success under high pressure (see 4 PM Wednesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) increased yesterday with highs in the 70's throughout much of Minnesota. I will not make Star Wars comments about May the Fourth. He looks forward to seeing progress on that front throughout the rest of his career.Thursday, 3 :00 AM Bob Weisman Meteorology Professor Saint Cloud State University Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department Approaching Mid-April Warmth Today, Then Increasing Chances for Showers Fri Nt-Sat "The issue is what goes on in the eye wall, the little dynamics that are difficult for computer models to handle and predict how strong storms are going to be," he said. Weagle added the science behind forecasting the intensity of storms has not improved much in the last 20 years. It's astounding to think how far we've come," Weagle said. "Now, we have these amazing satellites that give us in real time these photos of what's going on. Satellite images are another game-changer. "Whereas in the past, we might have evacuated the whole state of Florida, now we have an evacuation area that might be just South Florida or just the coastline of South Florida," he said. He also explained this advancement has made a big difference when authorities determine evacuation zones during a storm. WPTV WPTV First Alert Weather Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle says the forecasting of the intensity of hurricanes hasn't improved much in the last couple of decades. Twenty years ago, it was a spread of 600 to 700 miles across, and now, we have a much smaller cone," Weagle said. "In the last 20 years, these cones have shrunk quite a bit, especially in the fourth and fifth day. To demonstrate another advancement, Weagle described the narrowing of forecasting the area where a storm might make landfall, commonly referred to as the "cone of uncertainty." In Ian, it seems the Euro did the best job." "Last year, the GFS, which is the American model, did a better job overall than the Euro. "Now, there's a little competition going on between the Americans and the Europeans over who has the better computer model," Weagle said. He said of the hundreds of computer models that forecast hurricane tracks, about 10 have risen to the level of reliability over the years, and two of them are famous at this point. The model guidance is really our most important tool to use." "We now have the technology where we can handle more data and we can do it faster. Weagle has seen a dramatic shift over the years in tracking hurricanes. WPTV WPTV First Alert Weather Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle outlines how the hurricane error cone has shrunk in the last 20 years.
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